Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.963934 17.397466 20.043889 23.128160 26.616188 30.430570 34.909357
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 10.829155 14.082210 17.962548 22.897707 28.969288 36.154376 45.256187
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.429756 12.084019 16.802442 23.258449 31.766456 42.489695 56.904216
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 6.582557 10.307375 15.470041 23.000556 33.527575 47.518448 67.273018
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.656223 9.556899 15.299228 24.135134 37.099987 55.086022 81.497140
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.782287 8.682381 14.756448 24.573578 39.624228 61.319967 94.301858
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.021287 7.821868 14.065848 24.632078 41.500033 66.679945 106.173840
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.416104 7.096504 13.455902 24.687783 43.297886 71.975082 118.239033
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.198108 7.015779 13.891214 26.463047 47.923965 81.839243 137.781654
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.912161 6.749575 13.952712 27.583454 51.541910 90.343885 155.732527
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.653304 6.486165 13.972683 28.609286 55.053404 98.873402 174.201419
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.311741 5.984070 13.467275 28.608670 56.761670 104.533223 188.351668
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.905654 5.270795 12.468975 27.611497 56.687809 107.344713 198.257182
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.580365 4.672524 11.614125 26.786406 56.846920 110.568000 209.089523
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.386621 4.350810 11.294803 26.987255 58.930967 117.275568 226.266889
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.181332 3.950003 10.735198 26.613907 59.856721 121.952350 240.160271
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.105431 3.883270 10.931206 27.869424 64.089974 132.896850 265.738242
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.993917 3.687835 10.788225 28.353822 66.786004 141.126772 286.829447
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.874954 3.440043 10.476453 28.415364 68.601793 147.789690 305.393275
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.771524 3.213594 10.181790 28.476629 70.408914 154.525300 324.420098
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.758891 3.284933 10.682930 30.484189 76.550970 170.037030 360.660002
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.716511 3.243932 10.872819 31.750221 81.156924 182.752982 392.163331
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.673067 3.188552 11.014455 32.908806 85.604082 195.379365 424.059969